by
Steve Lazarowitz
November 2001
A BOLD PREDICTION
A lot of people had high expectations for e-publishing, most of which have not been met. I can't say I'm surprised. The one ingredient missing from the equation is the inexpensive hand held readers that will allow people to read e-books easily, with minimal investment.
I've been saying it all along and I'll say it again. The buying public does not want to have to sit at a computer to read a book. I don't usually read much at my computer, though I do have a Palm IIIC, a Rocket eBook reader and a Franklin eBookman, all of which I have read books on.
Of course, lackluster sales of these units (particularly the dedicated e-book readers) mean less titles available in those formats. And when titles are available, many of the larger publishers charge what they would charge for a hard cover book, though they incur no real production expense and no shipping expenses. In short, the print publishing industry is, unwisely, trying to milk the e-publishing industry in its unimpressive youth.
Enter the independent e-pubs. While it is true that they sell books for less money, they are often hopelessly understaffed and, often as not, are not professional in their approach to publishing. Some of the best independent e-pubs have already closed their doors and many others are struggling. However, it is the nature of the beast, that there are three companies springing up to replace each folded company. In the end, the e-pubs that have realistic expectations, set realistic goals and have the ability to attain quality manuscripts will likely still be with us when hand helds drop to a more reasonable price.
Most recently, the Hiebook has been released, and from all reports, it's the best hand held e-book reader to date. What might save these hand held e-books readers is that they play MP3s, a popular form of music compression. Imagine being able to listen to your favorite songs and read books on the same device, while traveling. The new e-readers also will accept audio books and will even let you record your own voice. Features are mounting, but at over $200, it still costs too much for the casual user.
I am reminded of cell phones. When they first appeared, very few people were willing to pay the rather high per minute charges or the privilege of talking anywhere. Back then, cell phones were expensive as well. Today, just a decade later, cell phones can be obtained cheaply, or even free, with the signing of a one year contract.
That is how it will have to go for e-books. Agree to buy eight or ten books over the next two years, and get an e-book reader for $50. Then they will sell. Once the readers start to sell, e-books themselves will start to make headway. Until that point, don't be surprised by lackluster sales, and little interest from your aunt in Omaha.
However, the younger generation, the children of today, by and large, prefer reading on a computer screen. They prefer electronic devices to paper books. They prefer hi-tech to low tech.
They will be the prime consumers in just ten short years, during which time, we can expect to see cheaper and cheaper models of e-books readers, with more and more features.
The point? Despite a fairly disappointing beginning, it is at very least, rather premature to sign off e-books quite yet. And quite possibly, twenty years from now, as our need to conserve natural resources continues to increase, you will find the paper book a rare commodity in a world of e-books.
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